Heathrow expansion: what difference will it make?

Transport Secretary Chris Grayling to set
out final proposal amid growing rift over expansion plans

In Depth

A third runway at Heathrow “was given the green light in 2016,
but remains a controversial matter for nearby residents,
politicians from all parties, environmentalists and business
leaders”, says Sky News.

First mooted in 2006 by the then Labour government, the plan was
cancelled in 2010 by the Tory/Lib Dem coalition before being
approved in 2016 after an independent commission found it was the
best proposal to increase the UK’s airport capacity.

Although government ministers had previously indicated there
would be a free vote on the matter, it is now thought Theresa May
will order a three-line whip as “cross-party support for the
Heathrow plan has waned in recent months with Labour toughening the
criteria to gain their support”, says The Daily Telegraph.

Officially Labour backs airport expansion in principle, but has
set four tests on air quality, noise, carbon emissions and regional
connectivity.

But “last night’s (meeting of Labour MPs) should ring alarm
bells for No. 10”, says HuffPost’s Paul Waugh.

“Given the sheer anger over the EU bill timetable, it’s conceivable Labour
could spring a surprise whip against the Heathrow plan and work
with rebel Tories,” Waugh writes.

As prospective votes on Brexit loom large, “the SNP too may
think defeating May is more important than Heathrow’s individual
merits”, he says.

The Tory MP Zac Goldsmith, who forced a by-election over his
party’s support for expansion and has said he will vote against it,
told The Guardian: “The odds have always been in
Heathrow’s favour because they have unprecedented, unhealthy access
to government. But they’re weaker now than they have ever been.

“Members of the SNP and DUP are openly questioning the promises
made to them by Heathrow about connectivity, numerous Conservatives
will vote against expansion, and if Labour come out against, I
don’t think the government can get it through.”

Why do some back Heathrow expansion?

The principal argument in favour of expanding Heathrow is to
enhance the economic growth of the UK.

The independent Davies commission, found in 2015 that an
enlarged Heathrow would boost UK growth by £150bn over 60 years and
create 60,000 new jobs

The airport’s chief executive, John Holland-Kaye, said after the
report’s publication: “This debate has never been about a runway,
it’s been about the future we want for Britain. Expanding Heathrow
will keep Britain as one of the world’s great trading nations,
right at the heart of the global economy.”

The plans would see Heathrow divided into two main passenger
terminals and transport hubs – Heathrow West and Heathrow East. At
99% capacity, a three-runway Heathrow could provide up to 740,000
flights a year.

“That’s enough for Heathrow to compete on an equal footing with
Paris, Frankfurt and Amsterdam and also provides sufficient
hub-airport capacity until at least 2040”, says the airport.

The new runway would open by 2025 at the earliest, and Heathrow
expects to be held to a 6.5-hour night flight ban as a condition of
building a third runway.

Why do others oppose it?

Environmental charities and the local authorities surrounding
Heathrow “contend new evidence on the severe health impacts of air
and noise pollution makes the expansion of Heathrow far less likely
to pass a review”, says the BBC.

In 2016 the independent Committee on Climate Change found that the
business plan for Heathrow expansion projects a 15% increase in
aviation emissions by 2050.

If that increase is allowed, members said that ministers “will
have to squeeze even deeper emissions cuts from other sectors of
the economy” in order to abide by existing UK legislation that
commits the government to cut CO2 levels by 80% of 1990 levels by
2050.

“You only have so much carbon to go round,” Tim Johnson, from
the Aviation Environment Federation told the BBC. “The government will have to decide
how best to distribute that; if they decide to use that for a new
runway then there will have to be a hit elsewhere.”

Those in support of the expansion have also argued that
Britain’s biggest airport will affect fewer people with noise in
future, due to quieter planes. But government calculations last
year suggested a new runway would still have a negative impact on
nearly a million households, or 2.2 million people.

Department for Transport documents, released by
the Civil Aviation Authority after a Freedom of Information
request, show the government expects 973,000 households around
Heathrow to experience increased daytime noise by 2050 after a
third runway is built.