What Spain’s political crisis means for Catalan independence

Ousting of tough-talking PM Mariano Rajoy
expected to reignite separatist dreams

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The motion passed by four votes in the Spanish parliament today,
amid a corruption scandal that has plagued Rajoy’s People’s Party.
The defeat forced the centre-right Prime Minister to hand over the
reins to Pedro Sanchez, leader of the Spanish Socialist Workers’
Party (PSOE).

Sanchez has pledged to hold elections at an
unspecified future date, but in the meantime the Catalan crisis
will surely be near the top of the interim leader’s to-do
list.

What is the situation in Catalonia?

The ousting of Rajoy comes as Catalonia also
grapples with political upheaval.

The region’s autonomy has been suspended
following the unauthorised independence referendum in October last
year.

Deposed leader Carles Puigdemont, currently
under arrest in Germany, faces sedition charges if he returns to
Spain, and efforts to replace him have sparked further
controvery.

On 14 May, almost seven months after Puigdemont fled
his homeland, Catalan MPs elected ultra-nationalist firebrand
Quim Torra as the region’s new president.

Despite misgivings over his virulent anti-Spanish
rhetoric, Torra has “named a cabinet without detained or exiled
former ministers, paving the way for Madrid to end its direct rule
over the northeastern region”, says news site The Local.

Where does Sanchez stand on
Catalonia?

Even at the height of the referendum crisis,
Rajoy refused to engage with the possibility of Catalan
independence, and it appears that – in spite of their other
political differences –  Sanchez intends to follow his
predecessor’s course.

During a no-confidence debate on Thursday,
Sanchez said he hoped for a “dialogue” with the Catalan government,
but stressed that any negotiations would have to abide by the
Spanish Constitution, which enshrines the “indissoluble unity” of
the nation.

However, with just 84 PSOE deputies in Spain’s
350-seat parliament, maintaining that stance may prove
difficult.

To pass the no-confidence
vote, Sanchez relied on the support of left-wing parties
Unidos Podemos and EH Bildu, Catalan nationalists ERC and PDeCAT,
and the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) – all of whom are in favour
of self-determination for Catalonia.

As Madrid-based newspaper El Pais says: “Can Sanchez aspire to
manage the Catalan crisis from a minority position within his own
parliamentary coalition, while a minority within the
pro-Constitution bloc itself? It will be difficult.”

Indeed, irrespective of what Sanchez may want to
do on the Catalonia issue, the harsh reality is that he may not be
able to do anything at all.

As head of a minority government with no popular
mandate, the interim PM’s time in office “is unlikely to yield
profound changes”, says The Guardian.