The volcanoes likely to erupt next

Scientists have identified high-risk sites
by tracking tectonic activity

In Depth

In January, an  eruption at Mount Agung in Indonesia
disrupted the flights of thousands of holidaymakers. At the start
of May, Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano began spewing
lava and smoke, sparking mass evacuations and damaging vital
infrastructure. 

This week, all eyes are on Guatemala, where an unexpectedly violent eruption at Fuego
volcano has reportedly killed at least 69 people, with dozens
more missing, in one of the worst disasters in the country’s
history.

According to the US Geological Survey, there are about 1,500
potentially active volcanoes worldwide, of which some 500 have
erupted in recorded history.

Here are the ones considered to pose the highest risk of
erupting next.

Oraefajokull, Iceland

Around 5,500 years ago, Iceland experienced a major cooling
period. Scientists have discovered that the increase in ice
coverage correlated with a decrease in volcanic eruptions in the
country, and that the same was true in reverse: when the ice
depleted, the number of eruptions increased.

Current trends in climate change indicate that Oraefajokull,
Iceland’s largest active volcano, may be heading for an eruption, a
theory back by increased tectonic activity.

Geophysicist Pall Einarsson says the increased
number of earthquakes at the site “are telling us that there’s
plenty of reason to monitor the course of events carefully”.

An extremely active tectonic region, Iceland made headlines in
April 2010 when its Eyjafjallajokull volcano violently erupted. The
ash and dust disrupted thousands of flights across the Northern
Hemisphere.

Popocatepetl, Mexico

In an article on The Conversation,
volcanologists Ralf
Gertisser, Katie Preece and Sylvain Charbonnier say that
Popocatepetl, southeast of Mexico City, is the country’s most
active volcano and remains a source of concern for
scientists. After almost 50 years of dormancy, the volcano
woke in 1994 and has been experiencing minor eruptions at irregular
intervals since then.

Centuries ago, large eruptions produced giant mud flows that
buried Aztec settlements, and even entire pyramids, Volcano Discovery says.

Up to 25 million people are estimated to live within 60 miles of
Popocatepetl, so a major eruption would be likely to cause major
devastation. The volcano is also topped with a glacier, which means
mudslides might occur.

On 1 June, the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center Washington (VAAC)
issued a warning that a major “emission” from
Popocatepetl appeared imminent, and that local authorities should
remain alert.

Villarrica, Chile

Villarrica volcano is located in the volcanic chain of the
Southern Volcanic Zone (SVZ) of the Chilean Andes. It is one of the
most active Chilean volcanoes, with 59 documented eruptions since
1558, according to the European Space Agency.

The snow-covered volcano is one of only a small number of
volcanoes around the world with an active lava lake.

A gradual increase in seismic activity around the lake, which
has produced lava fountains up to 490ft (150 metres) high, has been
documented since mid-November 2017.

Villarrica’s last eruption occurred in March 2015, forcing the evacuation of
more than 3,000 people in nearby communities.

Ol Doinyo Lengai, Tanzania

Tanzanian volcano Ol Doinyo Lengai, known by the local Masai
people as “Mountain of God”, has been showing warning signs of an
eruption for more than a year.

In June 2016, scientists placed five sensors around the peak of
the 7,650ft (2,330 metres) volcano. Eight months later, the team
saw a shudder in the data from one such monitor, The Sun says.

“This movement suggests the volcano is not only merely rumbling,
but that parts of it are lifting forward – meaning an eruption is
on the cards in the near future,” the newspaper reports.

“Not only could this be catastrophic for local villages, but it
could wipe out a historic site nine miles away nicknamed ‘the Dance
Hall’ – which has a collection of 400 human footprints dating back
19,000 years.”