Brexit: will Britain’s bid for independence fail?

May averts cabinet crisis but doubts remain
about UK’s ability to return to sovereign rule

In Depth

The backstop effectively allows the UK to remain in the customs
union until after December 2020, but specifies that this temporary
fix should only last until December 2021. Davis reportedly insisted
that this cut-off date be included in the wording of the proposal,
in a bid to quell Brexiteers’ fears that the EU alignment could
continue indefinitely. 

Davis clearly got his way, amid rumours that he threatened to
quit over the issue, but in doing so “he may also have increased
the chances of the EU declaring the proposal unacceptable”, says
The Guardian.

Including a time limit in a back-up arrangement makes no sense,
because the EU will still want to know what happens if an agreement
cannot be reached by this deadline, agrees The Independent.

So can the UK persuade the EU to accept its “divorce” terms by
the October summit, as planned?

In The Daily Telegraph, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
paints a disappointing picture for the 17 million people who voted
Leave two years ago.

“Brexiteers, bring out your black suits of mourning. Grieve with
private dignity. The quixotic bid for British independence has
failed,” he says.

“There will be no return to full sovereign and democratic
self-rule in March 2019, or after the transition, or as far as the
political eye can see.”

Evans-Pritchard argues that Westminster is edging towards
remaining in the EU single market and customs union, minus the
powers it previously had to influence the European Council,
European Parliament and the European Court.

The Tories will discover that the “Franco-German axis aims to
use its control over cliff-edge nodal points to force near total
acceptance of the EU’s legal and regulatory machinery”, he says.
Whatever the UK government proposes, he continues, the EU can
“evoke the doomsday scenario of a trade crash” and “exploit
Britain’s psychological vulnerability on Ireland”.

Independent UK trade infrastructure has not been built to make a
“no deal” walkout credible, Evans-Pritchard concludes. “Total
capitulation on EU terms therefore looks unavoidable at the October
summit.”