Betting odds and polls: who will be the next prime minister?

May refusing to be pushed out as cabinet
rivals recruit backers for leadership bids

In Depth

Ministers will meet at Chequers on Friday to thrash out crucial
details of the UK’s future relationship with the European
Union.

May has told aides she will “not be bullied out of office by
ministers or hardline Brexiteers opposed to her EU plans”, reports
The Sunday Times.

The rebels would need backing from 159 MPs, more than half of
those in Parliament, to bring her down in a vote of no confidence.
The signatures of 48 MPs would be needed to trigger such a
vote.

The newspaper claims that up to 20 MPs are preparing to run for
leader should May fall.

How long will May last?

May is more likely to exit Downing Street by the end of the year
than survive beyond it, according to Oddschecker, which aggragates online betting
odds from the top bookmakers. Ladbrokes gives her a 6/4 chance of
leaving this year, shorter odds than the 13/8 for 2019, or 5/2 for
2020 or later.

Who might replace May?

Environment Secretary Michael Gove tops the Oddschecker list for
next Conservative leader. He sent shockwaves
through Westminster by making a last-minute bid in the 2016
leadership race after chairing Boris Johnson’s campaign for the top
job. Gove later lost out to May and Andrea Leadsom, who then
withdrew to allow May to take the reins.

According to the bookies, Home Secretary Sajid Javid is in
second place, with Brexiteer backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg is in third. They are followed
by Foreign Secretary Johnson, Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt and
Leadsom, now leader of the Commons.

Javid, Gove and Hunt are among the handful of MPs “actively
recruiting backers”, says The Sunday Times.

What about Labour?

The latest survey from YouGov, carried out on 18 and 19 June, asked
voters if they thought May or Jeremy Corbyn would make the best
prime minister: 38% said May, while 26% opted for Corbyn. The
remainder were “not sure” or refused to answer.

However, the bookmakers give the Labour leader the best odds of
becoming the next prime minister – ahead of Gove and his
fellow Tories.