The numbers behind the UK’s stalling population growth

Despite a surge of immigrants, official
estimates show rate of growth is at its slowest increase since
2004

One-Minute Read

Official figures from the Office for National Statistics reveal
the population of the UK rose slightly to 66.4 million people last
year, an increase of just 0.6% – the lowest since 2005.

The number of births was the fewest in over a decade, while the
number of deaths was the highest since 2000. But “despite a widely
held belief that the UK’s vote to leave the European Union in 2016
would lead to a fall in immigration, the figures show international migration continues to increase”,
says The Guardian.

The total number of people migrating to the country
was 626,000, up 10% on the previous year, while the
number of people emigrating was 351,000, a 3% increase.

The four local authorities with the fastest-growing populations
were in central London: the City of London, Westminster, Camden and
Tower Hamlets.

“Typically London attracts young people drawn to the capital by
university and career opportunities but loses residents in older
age groups, particularly families with young children,” says the
London Evening Standard. However, the paper
says the increase in the net outward migration from the capital
“has been blamed on London’s housing crisis, with sky-high prices
and rent forcing thousands a year to relocate to cheaper areas in
the commuter belt or other towns and cities elsewhere in
Britain”.

Robin Maynard, from charity Population Matters, which researches
the environmental impact of population size, said the latest
figures gave “no grounds for complacency” about UK population
growth.

“Birth rates and migration fluctuate from year to year but our
already unsustainable population is continuing to rise and that
will continue until a positive strategy is put in place to address
it,” he told the BBC.

This was the 36th consecutive year of population growth in the
UK. Numbers began to climb in 1983 after years of decline, which
followed a period of low fertility and emigration starting in
1963.

However, population increases over the past three decades have
been far from uniform.

In the decade since 2008, the number of over-65s in the UK
increased by around 23%, while over the same period the working age
population has grown by just 3.5%, “with migration being a major
factor in the latter”, says the Financial Times.

Laura Gardiner, research director at the Resolution Foundation
think-tank, said: “The UK population is ageing particularly fast at
the moment because rising life expectancy is being amplified by the
large baby boomer generation moving from working age into
retirement.”

The FT says the data “also showed that population change was
unevenly distributed across regions”, with coastal and rural areas
tending to have older populations while urban areas saw greater
growth “as a result of both migration and natural growth rooted in
younger populations”.

This increasingly unbalanced distribution of old and young could
have “huge implications for public service provision across the UK,
and how those services are funded”, says Gardiner.

Meanwhile Maynard claims that while “the government has
announced ambitious plans to achieve a zero-carbon economy, by
ignoring our unsustainable population growth, it is driving with
the brakes on”.

“More people means more emitters and more emissions. Our growing
numbers are incompatible with our climate change commitments, the
health of our environment and our quality of life,” he adds.