7/8/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Darwin, Darwin Cup day

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Darwin
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A bumper ten race card has been set down for Darwin on Monday, headlined by the Darwin Cup (2050m), worth $200,000.
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Darwin Cup : View the Field and Odds for the Darwin Cup

Race 1. (12:22) Schweppes Sprint (70) 1200m

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3 Prince Of Mercia… (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is he a different, better horse? You can easily make a case to say he is. First run for Dick Leech came here on Wednesday over 1100m when giving them a start and a beating in an impressive display, something not the norm when he was with Clayton Douglas given he was a jump/run type. Natural improvement off that, clearly the one to beat.
Danger
1 Autocratic (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is a very interesting runner. He resumes for Garry Clarke and returns to the NT after a stint in SA with Team Oxlade, where he went like a jet in a trial in November but didn’t race in SA. 1200m is a touch on the short side for him but he is the class of the field and the stable love to target this raceday, so he has a bit going for him.
Long Shot
2 I’m A Legend (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) should appreciate getting back to benchmark grade. He ran two weeks back in a strong WFA race and just found them a bit sharp when running last in the field of five behind Masterati. His best is good enough and while I doubt he wins on current form, he can certainly pinch a first four spot.

Race 2. (12:57) Darwin Racing Hcp (58) 1200m

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Hoping we can get each way odds about 8 Tuffnut (Bet Now: 
$SP.00). He found the mile a bridge too far two back before coming back to 1100m on Wednesday and he was one of the real eye catchers of the meeting, closing off with purpose behind Prince Of Mercia. Up to 1200m, if he can use the gate and be within range, off last start, he has the finale to launch and blouse them.
Danger
3 Ye Hella (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) has returned well and is hard to beat against these. He resumed last Saturday at this track/distance when wide with cover before peeling wider into clear air and loomed to win but being first up, condition just gave way behind Super Famous. Good record at Darwin, improvement/upside to come…leading contender.
Long Shot
5 Ciao Uno (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is one I can entertain at a big price. Formerly raced in NSW, he had his first run for Chris Pollard over 1100m here on Wednesday in the Prince Of Mercia race mentioned above where he got back to neat last and was never a threat but stuck on well enough in a first run on the dirt. Good improvement compared to most and his best NSW form is good enough to threaten.

Race 3. (13:34) Tab We’re On Hcp (66) 1100m

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3 Sedona (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is worth a throw at the stumps each way. He has been kept on ice, having not raced since June 10 at this track/distance where he got a fair way out of his ground and was never a threat but did make up headway and was pretty good in defeat. He is a horse who can sprint well on the fresh side and with a stack of speed engaged, he’ll get his chance to launch over the top.
Danger
8 Hard To Excel (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is flying for Garry Clarke. He has won three on the bounce, the latest coming over 1000m here last Saturday when producing sustained speed from the front and giving nothing else a look in. Good test here, but he has the right racing style and has the right trainer/jockey combination. Hard to beat.
Long Shot
12 Chief Mondo (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is a stablemate of Hard To Excel that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since March 18 over this track/distance when back in the run and failing to make up any real headway in an end of prep run. He has a good record at Darwin, can sprint well fresh and is another that won’t mind the speed on in front.

Race 4. (14:12) S Montgomerie Lightning Plate 1000m

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2 Bel’s Banner (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is a ripping mare for Garry Clarke that resumes and I think she can resume a winner. She ended last prep on a high when winning over 1100m here on Anzac Day, settling near last after a tardy beginning but balanced up and launched late for a big win. Love horses that go out on a high because they usually come back in similar form. She’ll do me.
Danger
1 Expert Witness (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) wouldn’t have looked out of place in the Palmerston Sprint so it’s interesting that they dodged that race and go here. There was a lot of quality about his first up win over 1100m here, producing sustained speed from the front and was able to cling on despite losing a plate in the run.
Long Shot
10 Damascus Moment (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) creates interest. Formerly with Peter Hardacre in SA, she makes her NT debut for Philip Cole. She was a borderline city class horse when racing in SA so she has the engine under the hood to be more than competitive and I reckon a fast run 1000m will be ideal given her best trip is 1100m. I reckon watch the market and see what it does.

Race 5. (14:47) Australian Turf Club Hcp (58) 1600m

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5 Equal Balance (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Nine years of age is this guy but he maintains a very healthy zest for racing. He ran on Wednesday at this track/distance when back off the speed and tried to make a sustained run, which he did for the most part, but couldn’t quite get there when second to Tiara Jewel. Not the deepest race and he seems the most reliable option.
Danger
Speaking of a horse with a zest for racing, that certainly applies with 6 Latest Bentley (Bet Now: 
$SP.00). He is ten years of age and has been a visitor to Darwin for a number of years, where he does tend to save his best. He won a different track/distance race from Wednesday when near the speed throughout and credit to him, he was there to be run down but he found under pressure to fend them off and win. Commands respect.
Long Shot
10 Bel Suono (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) should appreciate a rise to 1600m. Garry Clarke trained mare that has raced over 1300m here her past couple, the latest coming three weeks back where she wasn’t able to use the inside gate to advantage, settling back and did make up ground but was never a threat. Gets a big jockey upgrade and up in trip, she’s a knockout hope.

Race 6. (15:27) G H Mumm (Bm72) 1600m

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1 That’s Justified (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is a beauty for Terry Gillett and in a good race, he’ll do me. He ran over this track/distance last Saturday and was very good in defeat from near the speed when third to He’s The Ultimate. Could have potentially gone down the Palmerston Sprint path but instead is going at the mile races and has the runs on the board to prove hard to beat.
Danger
6 Komachi (Bet Now: 
$SP.00), overall, has been really disappointing since arriving from overseas. He hadn’t won a race in Australia but that all changed here last Saturday, sitting near the speed and looked to be trucking before being clicked up and credit to him, he found under pressure to fend them off and win. He was only second up there so with room for improvement, he appeals.
Long Shot
5 Century Fox (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) should appreciate a drop back to the mile. He ran two weeks back in the NT Derby when a well backed favourite but he just didn’t run the 2000m out strongly enough behind Anphina. Back to 1600m looks ideal and provided there is petrol left in the tank, he has to be given serious respect.

Race 7. (16:04) Magic Millions (Bm69) 1300m

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2 Munster (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) looks a good thing. Neil Dyer trained gelding that is clearly loving life in the NT. He ran over this track/distance on Wednesday when somewhat unwanted in betting but nobody told him that because he gave them an absolute spanking, winning by over five lengths and running good time. Improvement to come, could be a case of good luck beating him.
Danger
1 Desert Dreamer (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is a tick over three weeks between runs for Garry Clarke since recording an impressive win over 1200m here. He used the inside gate to advantage to hold a forward spot and once that eventuated, it was race over and he gapped them in a sharp display. Is a winner up to 1600m so 1300m here is no issue and being only third up, there is upside.
Long Shot
4 Versetto (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) has to be given another look. He ran third in the Munster race mentioned above when leading in a line of five and just copped too much heat on speed, but you had to like the way he stuck on to finish third. If there is petrol left in the tank, I think he’s good enough to be around the mark.

Race 8. (16:43) Ladbroke It Hcp (62) 1300m

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13 American Jazz (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) needs to gain a start but if he does, he wins and wins well IMO. Formerly with Annabel Neasham, he’s had two runs for Garry Clarke. Very plain first run when back and wide. He had a few weeks off and ran here on Wednesday at this trip when landing on speed and was absolutely cruising before being clicked up and he just gapped his rivals, winning by a dozen lengths. Holds that form here, he wins.
Danger
6 Super Famous (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is a threat. He ran last Saturday over 1200m here where he gave them a start and a beating, rounding them up with purpose for an impressive win, running decent time. Not sure he is good enough to beat American Jazz but if that horse doesn’t get a run, then this guy becomes #1 seed.
Long Shot
3 Bartolini (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is one to include at a price. He has been kept on ice, having not raced since June 10 when back and making up ground but was never really a factor behind New Roman. Fresh legs at 1300m signals some level of intent and although he’ll concede them a start, he’ll be stronger than most at the end.

Race 9. (17:20) Silks Darwin (Bm66) 2050m

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1 Great Diviner (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) on top but not really a race I want to get involve in. He ran over 1300m here on Wednesday, his first run since July 19 when over 2050m so an unusual drop back in trip and just looked like he was run off his legs behind Munster but didn’t mind the way he finished his race off. Fitter and up in trip, he is the class of the field and will do me for a tip.
Danger
4 Grinzinger Bishop (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is the hard fit/in form horse. He comes through the NT Derby where he was back and somewhat wide, trying to make a sustained run and loomed but couldn’t quite get there, bloused late by Anphina. Unlikely to get a run in the Darwin Cup so runs here and rates as one of the leading contenders.
Long Shot
9 All Hard Wood (Bet Now: 
$SP.00) is a knockout contender. He ran two weeks back in the Lake’s Folly race where he was near the speed throughout and tried hard but was simply no match for the impressive winner. That form, I think, will be the winning form reference for the Darwin Cup, so I am clearly respecting it here.

Race 10. (18:05) Darwin Cup 2050m

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I think 5 Lake’s Folly (Bet Now: $6.00) is a moral here. Lake’s Folly had the first look at 2000m for the prep under Sheila Arnold and he was very strong to the line. He’s got good room for improvement, he’ll be strong at the end and I think there are several in the market that have none, namely Anphina, Grandslam and Sanblas. I am really keen on his prospects.
Danger
1 Noir De Rue (Bet Now: $4.40) is the class of the field and that class will carry him a long way. He has been dominant this time in, winning 2/2, the latest over the mile at WFA where he was sharp from off the speed and was far too good. 62kg is a mighty impost but he is the class and it will carry him a long way. Hard to beat.
Long Shot
4 Write Your Name (Bet Now: $9.00) is a first four contender. He ran third in the Noir Due Rue race mentioned above, finding the line well enough but was never really a threat. I doubt he is good enough to turn the tables but is a winner at the trip and maps to do no work in the run. Must for exotics.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 13 American Jazz
NEXT BEST: Race Ten Number 5 Lake’s Folly
LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 8 Tuffnut
 
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 2
Leg Two: 13
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 8, 9
Leg Four: 5
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