What happens if prison places run out?

The number of people

The number of people behind bars in England and Wales is
expected to increase by nearly 20,000 over the next five years,
according to newly published government projections.

The total currently stands at around 79,500 prisoners, after
dipping during the pandemic, but the Ministry of
Justice^[1] (MoJ) has predicted that
the tally will grow to 98,500 by March 2026.

The numbers of jailed men, women and children aged 15 to 17 are
all expected to increase.

Behind the extra demand

The surge in prisoners is “largely a result” of the extra 23,400
police officers due to be recruited, which is likely to increase
charge volumes, said the MoJ.

The estimate also takes into account the impact of the Police, Crime,
Sentencing and Courts Bill^[2] going through
Parliament. The proposed legislation includes “plans to introduce
tougher sentences for the worst crimes, while also stopping the
automatic early release from prison of serious and violent sexual
offenders”, explained Sky News^[3].

In the short-term, inmate numbers are expected to rise as courts
deal with the backlog of trials delayed by Covid-19 restrictions,
although the MoJ pointed to “uncertainty” around the speed of
recovery of the criminal justice system and the projections
generally.

Record prison-building programme

The government^[4] pledged in last
month’s spending
review^[5] to “continue
the biggest prison-building programme in more than a century”, with
£3.8bn in funding to deliver 20,000 additional prison places by the
mid-2020s.

Justice Secretary Dominic Raab^[6] has said the plans
include “six state-of-the-art prisons”, as well as the expansion of
other sites across the country.

But MPs on the Commons’ Public Accounts
Committee^[7] have previously
expressed concern about the department’s ability to meet rising
demand. In a report published last year, the committee noted that
despite earlier promises to create 10,000 new-for-old prison places
by 2020, just 206 new places had been delivered.

Owing to a “staggering backlog” of maintenance work that would
cost more than £900m to address, 500 prison places were being taken
“permanently out of action” every year due to their poor condition,
the MPs added.

‘Ramping up a stressed system’

The Prison Governors’ Association wrote to Raab earlier this
month warning that ministers would have to consider releasing
inmates early “because they will run out of places by 2023”,
reported The Telegraph^[8].

The association’s president, Andrea Albutt, said the
government’s planned expansion would not be ready in time to handle
the expected influx of criminals. And existing plans to increase
the number of inmates sharing cells and to provide temporary
accommodation would also not be enough, she said.

The current prison population is “only 1,500 short of the
operational capacity of 80,852”, said The Telegraph. This maximum
capacity allows for “doubling up” in up to 60% of the single cells
in the most crowded facilities.

“They are going to have to look at policies that don’t put
people in prison,” suggested Albutt. “The alternatives are
releasing people earlier or more court diversion schemes of
offenders away from custody.”

She warned that violence, mental health illness and self-harm
were already on the rise in UK jails. “If we start ramping up a
stressed system by stuffing in more people, it could potentially
implode, especially as we cannot recruit enough staff,” she
said.

An MoJ spokesperson insisted that the prison population was
carefully monitored and that the department would adjust plans
“when necessary to ensure that we will always have sufficient
capacity”.