Defining issue

Tens of millions of

Tens of millions of people will be forced to flee their homes
over the next few decades as a result of worsening environmental
effects of climate change, experts have warned.

The chief of the International Organization for Migration
(IOM) told the Cop26^[1] climate summit
earlier this month that “as the impacts of disasters, land
degradation and water scarcity become more intense and devastating,
it has become critical to address the impacts of climate change on
migration, displacement and health”.

“These issues are interconnected but have been addressed in a
siloed manner for too long,” Antonio Vitorino continued. “We must
address them together.”

Defining issue

To date, “no legal definition for persons on the move due to
environmental drivers exists”, and neither is there “an
internationally accepted one”, according to the IOM^[2]. 

“Labels are important,” the UN agency said in a 2008 report^[3], and “one immediately
contentious issue” is whether to use the term “climate refugees” or
“climate migrants” to refer to people displaced due to climate
change.

“This is not just semantics,” the report said. The definition
“will have very real implications for the obligations of the
international community under international law”. 

More than a decade later, which term to use is still being
debated. But “until the world agrees how to define a ‘climate
migrant’, legislation to protect them will lag behind the reality
of climate change”, said The New
Statesman^[4].

The term “refugee”, as defined by the UN’s 1951 Refugee
Convention and 1967 Protocol, refers to a person with a
“well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race,
religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or
political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality and is
unable to or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of
the protection of that country”. 

If the definition were applied to people displaced due to
environmental causes, they would be protected under the principle
of non-refoulement, affording them certain rights not afforded to
people defined as a “migrant”, for which there is no agreed
international definition. 

Scale

Most migration caused by climate change currently takes place
within national borders. The World Bank^[5] has estimated that
a total of 216m people across six regions – Sub-Saharan
Africa, East Asia and Pacific, South Asia, North Africa, Latin
America, Eastern Europe and Central Asia – may “move within
their own countries due to slow-onset climate change impacts by
2050”.

And these projections “are likely to be conservative”, refer
only to internal displacement and do not cover modelling for
western Europe and America, the organisation said in a report
published earlier this year. Even so, forecasts “should impart a
sense of urgency for early action”. 

“If well managed, internal climate migration and associated
shifts in population distribution can become part of an effective
adaptation strategy,” the report continued. But if the issue is
ignored, “climate change could shift social, economic and
livelihood circumstances in ways that may force people to migrate
in distress”, placing “significant pressures on both sending and
receiving areas”. 

Although most climate-related migration is currently within
nations, recent years have seen a “rising trend of cross-border
movements”, said The New Statesman. 

In a recent report^[6] on such migration, the
White House National Security Council said that cross-border
movement was being driven by regions where climate change
“interacts with conflict and violence”. Rising global temperatures
are already known to be indirectly linked to an increase in violent
conflict^[7]. 

Despite acknowledging the growing problem, the US is turning
away migrants at the Mexico border, even as the neighbouring nation
is hit by an influx of people fleeing other nations as a result of
climate factors. And while the number of migrants arriving in
Mexico is expected to rise, “models can’t say much about the
cultural strain that might result from a climate influx”, said
The New York
Times^[8]. “There is no data on
anger and prejudice.” 

Solutions

The plea by International Organization for Migration boss
Vitorino for action to tackle the global crisis was echoed
by the World Health Organization and other major institutions.
In a statement at Cop26, the UN Network on
Migration^[9] warned that “no region
is spared from environmental hazards”.

Leaders across the globe are being urged to integrate human
mobility scenarios into their climate change action plans. The
World Bank’s 2021 report concluded that hotspots for internal
migration could emerge as early as 2030. “Development planning
needs to be proactive,” said the report, which called for
strategies to be put in place for the integration of displaced
peoples.

Plans should also be made to “build resilience for populations
who remain”, the report continued.

On a positive note, the World Bank said that decisive global
action on greenhouse gas emissions could “dramatically slow the
rise in internal climate migration”. Combined with “inclusive and
resilient development trajectories” , such action was projected to
potentially reduce the level of internal climate displacement by as
much as 80%.

But “the window for action is closing”, said The New York
Times. 

“For a long time, the climate alarm has been sounded in terms of
its economic toll, but now it can increasingly be counted in people
harmed,” the paper concluded.